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An Early Look with James Jordan - Morphettville 26 September 2020

Quite like the card at the Parks on Saturday and despite there being rain forecast I am always confident in the tracks draining ability. As I write this (Thursday night) the radar is showing a fair bit of rain over the track, but I am banking on it being close to the Soft 5 range.

Suggested Bets:

R4 Galahad Guru - Best Of Best (half-stake)

I thought this horse would make the grade early on, unfortunately he was injured at start number six and had 18 months off the scene. His three runs this time in have been pass marks but not much more, but I thought his work in the home straight last start was an indication that a better run is coming. He draws gate one here, finds a very moderate field and has the mile run under his belt now without a heap of luck late. I won't be playing huge but he's worth having something small on.

R7 Alsvior $4.00

Really liked the way he won last start against the best field he's raced against for a long time, if not ever. He was able to use the gate and take a position before showing a nice turn of foot. I'm hoping he can do the same here from gate 5. The Difference and Jacobite Prince are both going well but I think Alsvior will hold his own here. Won't be off the map but can't see them betting much better than current price.

R9 Equus D'Oro $8.00

Might be barking up the wrong tree here as this horse's jump out and first up run were well below what he's capable of. But... he finds a very moderate field and maps to nearly lead them. Dawn Salute is very short at ~$2.30 so I am looking for something out of the box and have landed on this gelding. His best ratings are a couple of lengths superior to Dawn Salute's best run so hoping he produces somewhere near that second-up out to the 1250m. When I'm considering a 'volatile' proposition I'll rarely go EW as a hit would result in a win, whereas a miss will result in an unplaced run. Win only and hope he turns up!

 

Predictions:

  • Rain around but banking on it being a Soft 5 or a rating either side of it.
  • Last time rail was in True was July 18th
  • Since then we've had positions of 3m, 3m and 6m.
  • I think the inside two lanes should be fresher than the rest and am happy to look for on-pacers and horses drawn low.
  • Verdict : Penalise the backmarkers looking to swoop if investing early.

Drifters/Lays:

R3 So You Can $2.00

He was very good two runs back but his Melbourne run was a bit over a length inferior to the start prior. He maps well but will probably end up on the back of Talamo who is on the way up and has a 5kg weight pull. I've got him marked favourite but think the evens is too short.

R4 Sadente $2.40

She's got a great chance in this, I'm not debating that, but think the current odds are overly cautious. I think you'll get a better price if you wait and if she happens to hit my price I'd be happy to bet. She's a get back horse drawn the outside barrier in a smallish field. Think $3.00 is achievable on the day.

R9 Dawn Salute $2.30

He doesn't come out of top-tier form races and I'm happy to oppose at the current odds. Even if I'm wrong with my assessment of Equus D'Oro, I still think you'll see better odds than what's on offer now. He can box seat in this and gets his chance but his ratings don't justify such a short quote.

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